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Why Learning Works At All

The Word That Settles The Argument

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Capacity is the variety of patterns a model could express, and the parameter count is a surprisingly poor way to measure it.

Two people can look at the same model and disagree about whether it is big. One

counts the adjustable quantities and says a billion, which sounds enormous. The

other points out that nearly all of those quantities are held close to zero by a

penalty and that training stopped after a fraction of a pass, so the thing is

behaving like something far smaller. Both are describing the same object. They are

measuring different things, and the word that covers the disagreement is capacity.

What is being counted

Capacity is a property of a family of patterns, assessed before any data arrives.

Fix the kind of model you intend to use, leave its adjustable quantities free, and

ask how varied the resulting collection of input-to-output relationships is. A

straight line through one input has two things you may set, so the family contains

every straight line and nothing else. A parabola has three. A large network has a

number of free quantities too large to think about and a correspondingly vast

collection of relationships available to it.

FIG 1Two families, two numbers of free choices
-10.00-1.257.5016.2525.000.01.32.53.85.0input
one member of the straight-line familyone member of the parabola family
Capacity is not about either curve. It is about the two families they were drawn from. A straight line can be made to pass through any two points and usually not three; a parabola through any three. The larger family contains every member of the smaller one and a great deal besides, and that containment is what the word describes.

Notice what capacity is not. It is not performance: a family with enormous capacity

contains a correct pattern for almost any task and millions of ruinous ones too, and

its size says nothing about which the training procedure will land on. It is not

complexity in the colloquial sense either, since a lookup table with no adjustable

quantities has unlimited capacity in the sense that matters here.

What capacity does tell you is how seriously to take a training score. A family able

to express only straight lines cannot fit a hundred scattered points closely, so if

it does, something real has been found. A family able to express anything fits those

points closely whether or not there is anything in them to find, so a close fit is no

evidence. That is the hinge the whole subject turns on.

The lesson stops here

7 more paragraphs to go

You have read the opening. The rest of the argument, the problems that check whether it landed, and the lines worth keeping at the end all come with a plan.

The first lesson of every course in the library reads the whole way through, free, so you can see exactly what the rest of them are.

See the planThe contents

This is the reading half

Starting the course gives you your own copy of it. Every idea on every page has problems standing under it, marked with a reason rather than a tick, and any sentence you do not believe can be opened and argued with. None of that can happen on a page nobody owns.

The contents

The rest of this course

  1. 01The Number That Proves Nothing
  2. 02The Measurement And How It Breaksopening only
  3. 03The Word That Settles The Argumentyou are here
  4. 04The Curve In Every Textbookopening only
  5. 05Charging For The Wrong Answersopening only
  6. 06The Lever With No Downside, Almostopening only
  7. 07Past The Point Where It Should Breakopening only
  8. 08The Honest State Of The Answeropening only

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